Paul Armstrong

Hello, I’m Paul Armstrong. I explore the intersection of technology, culture, and commerce to uncover what matters now and next. Clients tell me I cut through complexity to highlight the real opportunities and challenges shaping their future.

I wrote Disruptive Technologies: Understand, Evaluate, Respond to help executives worldwide identify opportunities and sensibly apply emerging technologies. The second edition, released in 2023, explores artificial intelligence and also introduces the TBD framework: technology, behaviour, and data.

I am a recognised authority on disruption and innovation, my insights have been featured in top-tier media outlets such as the Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Forbes, Guardian, CNN, BBC, and Sky News. I’ve advised global organisations including PwC, Meta, Coca-Cola, and P&G, through TBD Group, known for its intelligence products, events, and the internationally acclaimed TBD Conference. Most recently, I co-founded Vox Futura, the world’s first avatar speaker bureau, redefining the future of public speaking. I am an optimistic realist about technology and the powers shaping its trajectory.

+ Full Biography

Paul Armstrong is a globally recognised expert on technology, disruption, and innovation, with a career dedicated to helping organisations navigate the complexities of emerging trends and transform challenges into opportunities. As the founder of TBD Group, Paul provides cutting-edge advisory services, intelligence products, and events to some of the world’s leading companies, including PwC, Meta, Coca-Cola, and P&G, as well as stealth startups. His work focuses on equipping leaders to embrace change, unlock growth, and future-proof their organisations.

Paul’s career spans influential roles in both the US and UK. He began in Los Angeles, leading high-profile initiatives for Myspace and global agencies, before returning to the UK to spearhead the social technologies team at WPP’s Mindshare. Recognised for his critical insights, Paul is a trusted voice in top-tier publications such as the Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Guardian, CNN, BBC, and Sky News.

Through TBD Group, Paul created the bestselling What Did ____ Do This Week? intelligence series, which decodes the strategies of tech giants such as Amazon, Google, and OpenAI. His events, including the renowned TBD Conference, bring together visionaries from across industries to challenge conventional thinking and reimagine the future. Known as “Like TED, without the bullsh!t,” TBD has hosted over 200 world-class speakers, from executives at Google and Alibaba to slam poets, Pulitzer prize-winning scientists, and Kung-Fu masters.

Paul wrote Disruptive Technologies, a strategic guide to navigating innovation, now in its expanded second edition. The book, and Amazon bestseller, introduces the TBD framework—Technology, Behaviour, Data—to help organisations thrive amid disruption.

Most recently, Paul co-founded and launched Vox Futura, the world’s first virtual avatar speaker bureau, with Tracey Follows, world-renowned futurist and identity expert. The initial cohort of speakers included technology experts to slam poets, product designers to ex-Royal Marines. Cohort two is set to arrive in Q2 2025.

Beyond his business ventures, Paul is deeply involved in the global tech community. He serves on the council of Plastic-Free, Cool Brands, and has been a digital advisor for the British Government. Paul also acts as a non-executive director for Huggg, an ambassador for Meaningful Business, and a judge for several prestigious industry awards.

Currently, Paul is preparing his next book, focusing on risk as a driver of innovation. His diverse expertise and ability to demystify complex topics make him one of the most sought-after advisors and commentators in the world of technology and business transformation.

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Advisor

Experience tells me most successful companies aren’t the ones with all the answers—they’re the ones that ask the right questions.

My work with global organisations like Sony Music, Omnicom, and Coutts focuses on helping them tackle what’s holding them back and uncovering what’s next.

Through TBD Group, I deliver advisory services that simplify complexity, drive innovation, and turn challenges into growth opportunities. My goal is to help businesses thrive in the face of disruption and confidently shape their futures.

For some it’s a regular whisperer service, others want full training, some want me to ghostwrite a report, I enjoy it all, and people tell me they like the realist approach I bring.

I also write a fair bit (albeit irregularly) for The Information, City AM, Cool Hunting, In the past I have contributed to Forbes, Reuters, Evening Standard, Guardian amongst others.

The Book

Disruptive Technologies is a strategic guide for leaders aiming to navigate and leverage the rapid advancements in technology. It challenges outdated assumptions and provides a clear framework to understand, evaluate, and respond to emerging technologies - whatever they may be. Designed for ambitious professionals, the book has practical insights to drive innovation and position organisations at the forefront of technological change. It’s also an Amazon bestseller.

"Helps executives breathe easier and sleep better."

Dan Pink (‘Drive’)

"Asks the right questions about what tomorrow will look like."

Mike Murphy (IBM)

"One of the best books to read if you have that big idea."

Lance Ulanoff (Tech Radar)

Speaking

I’ve delivered over 100 keynotes and speeches worldwide, spanning industries like finance, hospitality, and beyond. I’ve grilled CEOs, moderated, and participated in panels, using every opportunity to inform, challenge and rethink the now.

Each talk is tailored to its audience, cutting through trends and hype to focus on actionable steps rooted in data and measurable impact. My goal is to ensure audiences leave equipped to drive real change—not just inspired by the potential but ready to act.

Talks

Every talk is different and tailored, but here’s some of the most recent talks I have given, and what people have said.

"Not just an engaging speaker, but a crowd puller"

Gaurov Arora - Visa

"Paul is a great advisor and sounding board"

Stanislas Magniant - Coca Cola

"Charming, professional and really knows his stuff"

Sarah Tate - Google

"...both entertaining and knowledgable"

James Ferreti - Wise

"His actionable insights left a profound impact"

Grace Finn - Cliste Hospitality

Unseen Game-Changers

Discover the under-the-radar technologies that will quietly but profoundly reshape industries.

In this session, Paul explores transformative innovations like neuromorphic computing, digital twins, and synthetic biology, explaining how they’ll disrupt traditional business models and spark new opportunities. He outlines timelines for adoption, real-world applications, and how leaders can prepare for the future.

‍Topics include:
‍Redefining efficiency with digital twins.Neuromorphic chips and the future of AI.The rise of synthetic biology in healthcare, manufacturing, and agriculture.

Agentic AI: Decentralising Intelligence and Taking Control

Break free from Big Tech's grip and unlock the potential of agentic AI.

Paul discusses why decentralised intelligence is the next step in AI’s evolution and how it empowers businesses to innovate without relying on corporate ecosystems.This session explores the rise of open-source AI, decentralised learning models, and practical steps for integrating them into your strategy.

‍Key takeaways:
‍Building AI systems that work for you, not tech giants.The long-term impact of decentralised AI on industries.Preparing for the post-agentic AI landscape.

Post Hype Technologies: The Next Wave of Industry Transformation

Blockchain and AI may have dominated the conversation, but what comes next?

Paul identifies emerging technologies poised to reshape industries over the next five years, such as biocomputing, edge AI, and programmable materials. He provides actionable insights on what leaders should focus on today to avoid falling behind tomorrow.
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‍This session addresses:
‍Separating signal from noise in emerging tech.
Timing your investments in post-hype innovations.
Learning from industries already leveraging the next big breakthroughs.

Quantum Technologies: From Research to Reality

Position your business at the forefront of quantum innovation.

Paul demystifies quantum computing, quantum encryption, and quantum sensors, explaining their practical applications and timelines for adoption. Learn how quantum technology will reshape industries like finance, logistics, and healthcare—and what steps to take today to secure a competitive edge.

‍Focus areas:
‍Quantum’s role in secure communications and data processing.
The industries most vulnerable to quantum disruption.
Immediate actions to future-proof your business.

Hyper-connected, but isolated: Building customer loyalty in a tech-driven world

Maintaining human connections in the age of AI and automation.

As businesses adopt AI and digital-first strategies, the risk of eroding personal customer relationships grows. Paul explores how to counteract this by creating authentic, deep customer engagements while leveraging new technologies like AR, spatial computing, and conversational interfaces.

‍Key discussion points:
‍Using AR to humanise digital customer touchpoints.
Avoiding pitfalls of AI-driven personalisation.
Ensuring technology strengthens—not isolates—your brand’s customer connections.

The Ozempic Effect: How GLP-1 is Reshaping Business and Society

The rise of GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro is far more than a healthcare revolution—it’s a cultural and economic shift with ripple effects across multiple industries. From food to fashion to aviation and insurance, the impact of these weight-loss treatments hasn’t even begun yet.

In this talk, Paul Armstrong unpacks the profound secondary impacts of GLP-1 drugs and explores how businesses can anticipate and adapt to this transformation, find opportunities and avoid being disrupted.

‍Key takeaways include:
‍How GLP-1 is redefining demand in industries.
The implications and opportunities for businesses and operations.
Strategies to navigate this shift, from adjusting supply chains to rethinking product lines and customer engagement.